While I'm here, an update on my portfolio:

APR 8 US:LVS LONG  $3.95 CURRENT: $4.35
APR 7 US:LVS LONG  $2.91 SOLD: $4.51
MAR 25 US:AIV LONG  $5.11 CURRENT: $6.45
MAR 25 US:HT LONG  $1.70 CURRENT: $2.45 ($0.18 dividend March 31st)
MAR 19 US:AIB(ADR) LONG  $1.80 SOLD: $1.54
MAR 19 US:EPEX LONG  $0.13 SOLD: $0.15
JAN 28 US:FMNLONG  $0.60 SOLD: $0.65
DEC 17 US:HUN LONG  $3.18 CURRENT: $3.97 ($0.10 dividend March 15th)

Last updated April 9th, 2009 12:25pm

I also made some small porfolio adjustments in Feb, but I'll leave those out as they really didn't go anywhere.

AIB is now at $3. In fact, it started surging right after I sold it at $1.5. Go me! Asides from that one bad move, most of my portfolio dipped into the red when DOW sank below 7000 early last month. I averaged down on the good stocks and cut the bad stocks during the period of time. I wish I had more capital to work with, but I'm pretty happy with my portfolio.

See you all in the summer!

I'm in a real hurry to get to work, so no charts today. "Liquidation" pretty much sums up my strategy for this red day on the market. I've liquidated all my remaining shares except HUN.

5 stocks that I have limit orders on:

FORD MOTOR COMPANY at below $2.2
IVANHOE ENERGY INC at below $0.50
LAS VEGAS SANDS at below $5.50
ION GEOPHYSICAL CORPORATION at below $2.0
PARTICLE DRILLING at below $0.10

If I have one single piece of advice to offer, it would be to lock-in to your profits swiftly on rallies.  I'm not advocating day-trading, but looking back at 2008, very few companies made it through the year in the green zone. Evem my savings account outperformed 90% of the market! Cashing in on rallies and raising cash will be most important. By April or May the picture will be clearer as to which companies will make it, and which companies won't. Then it'd be a good time to shop for a cheap stock that will yield long-term returns. Until then, good luck everyone!

Several fellow traders messaged me and asked me: just how did I know?

So, as I have posted yesterday, I got rid of my Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) shares at a healthy $8.49/share. This morning it had already slipped more than 10% to $7.50. Frankly, the markets are more predictable than most people are claiming as of late. Here's a quote from Monday's post:

"I anticipate that, by Friday, the markets will be red across the board, erasing more than 75% of this week's advance." -Keni

And an easy to understand chart:

 
S&P 500 Index

So, what does an index have to do with LVS? As much as LVS shareholders hate to admit, in the past 18 or so weeks, LVS's price per share had more to do with general investors confidence than its own operations. If we study LVS's movement in price in relation to its news releases since October, it would be most riddling because it appears that whereas good news drive the price down, bad news drive the price up.

That's how it appears anyway. Now that Q4 of 2008 is behind us, we can look back and visualize the uncanny resemblance between LVS and the market indices. A picture is worth a thousand words, here's LVS's chart from the same period of time as the chart above:

Las Vegas Sands

LVS can fire another 9000 workers from Macau and banks can upgrade/downgrade the company as much as they want--I still wouldn't be surprised if LVS does hit my seemingly outrageous price target of $9.5 early next week if markets rally again. Now if all the daytraders from HUN can just move here to LVS, I can see some nice returns on the third of my three picks for January--and speaking of HUN, it's up a splendid 5% today on news that it will use its $1 billion cash to lower debt and increase liquidity. Go me!

After being deprived of the market for the weekend, I was anxious to see how markets are responding to the current unease in Gaza and other events. So far, my LVS call has risen an increble 41% over 2 trading days. And remember EPEX? It's up 47% since my call, and I'm personally up over 70% already.

I've yet to make a single move this year. That is probably the best move I could've made because all of my holdings are in the green. However, I anticipate that, by Friday, the markets will be red across the board, erasing more than 75% of this week's advance.

DEC 31 US:LVS LONG  $5.66 CURRENT: $8.36
DEC 26 US:EPEX LONG  $0.13 CURRENT:  $0.23
DEC 17 US:HUN LONG  $3.18 CURRENT:  $3.44

Last updated January 5th, 2009 13:05pm

Personal target prices, holding periods and insight:

NYSE LVS - Target price $9.5, Holding period: 1 week. The biggest spikes in this week's advance for LVS were at $5.9 and $7.3. There were no news tied to the sudden surge besides a target price upgrade. Short Interest for LVS was at 32,000,000 back in December 10th. Needless to say this number have dropped as most Bears should have been wise enough to cover on New Years. The surge at $5.9 led to a short squeeze at $7.3 - spiking the stock through resistance. Given the sudden optimism with the company (which was rare in November/December) I predict that LVS will reach $9.5 before investors can not refrain themselves from locking into profits. There will be more and more shorting as LVS near $9.5. I'm planning to hold for a week and let go from there, as markets will inevitably come back down from the new year spike.

NASDAQ EPEX - Target price $0.50, Holding period: 3 months. Crude oil prices are beyond low by anybody's count. However, with unease in Isreal, some fear that the events over there may disrupt oil supplies. At the moment, oil tankers are lined up on the shore and not unloading the oil because we have too much inventory. The tankers are literally parked there just to store the excess oil. With OPEX cutting its oil production and the war in Gaza putting a dent in oil supplies, the excess oil is going to be depleted sooner or later. And, with oil prices so low, people are less reluctant now to be wasteful again. As crude prices head back up, oil & gas companies will follow. Other companies that I'm keeping an eye on: UDRL & IVAN. On another note, however, I would trade EPEX with caution because if the stock prices remain this low, delisting is a very real possibility. I'm planning to swing trade this stock with a modest percentage of my portfolio until it reaches $0.35. From there I will hold a small stake for the offchance that it might be bought out or privatized.

NYSE HUN - Target price: $12, Holding period: 18 months. This one is a real sleeper as of late, but I'm glad I got in early at an average of $3.15 per share. My strategy is to ignore all spikes/dips in the short term as I am confident that this stock is going up in the long term. HUN recently received over a billion dollars in settlements and insurance claims. With this much cash, the company will be fit the survive possibly another down year for the markets. Most economists are predicting a complete recovery of the markets by 2010. With big guys in the sector like DOW and ROHM struggling, HUN may be one of the few to come up as a winner this year. Since its failed merger annoucement in December, many insiders (including executives and the CEO himself) have bought into HUN heavily. If you are wondering just how much $1 billion in cash means, well, by comparison the current market cap of the company is $800 million. For every $8 dollars you invest in the company, they have $10 in cash. I mean, their real estates and operations has got to be worth something too, right? With that much insider buying and a huge cash infusion, not to mention an upcoming lawsuit involving the banks which could possibly give the chemical maker another nice boost in cash, HUN is my long term pick. I'm planning to hold this stock with 25% of my portfolio for about 18 months.

Happy trading folks, see you tomorrow morning.

The year 2008 started out ordinary and boring like any other year, but took a brusque turn towards the end of the year.

The amazing Beijing Olympic opening ceremony awed the world in August, amidst global scrutiny over China's actions against Tibet.

Shortly after, Russia invaded Georgia in a bloody campaign that dominated the headlines for days.

Russia outraged at America's plans to erect "missle-shields" in eastern Europe.

Tsunamis, earthquakes and hurricanes had the world on its knees.

Poisonous milk from China, tainted meat from Canada and other catastrophic food poisoning scandals plagued the world.

The first African-American president of the United States was elected following a rigorous brainwashing campaign. The rest of the world almost "liked" America for a minute.

The world economy entered recession as market indices performed worse than they did during the Great Depression.

Millions of jobs on the line as banks and automakers pled for more of American's money in order to survive.

Zimbabwian election plagued by violence and corruption, pirates seized control of Somalian cities, militants killed hundreds in Mumbai attack, protesters locked down airport in Bangkok, and Israelis launched air raids against Palestinians killing hundreds of civilians in the Gaza strip.

Casualties from the war in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to rise.

Trillions of dollars of money were pulled out of thin air by governments to "rescue" the world from chaos.

Democracy failed in 2008. But what's going to happen in 2009?